Market Analysis-Smoking Cessation And E-Cigarettes - UK - February 2014

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The rise in popularity of E-cigarettes has hampered growth in the value of the smoking cessation market, which saw modest growth of less than 2% in 2013. Although E-cigarettes are largely marketed as an alternative to smoking, smokers have been using them to cut down or quit smoking. Changes in legislation, coming into effect in 2016, will see E-cigarettes classified as medicines. This will result in their availability on prescription for the first time, which may hamper the market. Additionally, with the level of nicotine in E-cigarettes also restricted, the usage experience for smokers is likely to change, and may result in low usage satisfaction.

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Table of Content

Introduction
Definitions
Abbreviations

Executive Summary
The market
Figure 1: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of smoking cessation products, 2008-18
Market factors
Companies, brands and innovation
Figure 2: Brand shares in UK value sales of smoking cessation methods, year to November 2013
The consumer
Figure 3: Smoking status, October 2013
Figure 4: Motivations to quit smoking, October 2013
Figure 5: Attitudes towards E-cigarettes, October 2013
What we think

Issues in the Market
How have E-cigarettes impacted the smoking cessation market?
What are the most successful smoking cessation methods?
Are E-cigarettes helping people quit smoking?
How will the reclassification of E-cigarettes in 2016 impact the market?

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Trend Application
Trend: Help Me Help Myself
Trend: Prove It
Mintel Futures: Generation Next

Market Drivers
Key points
Decline in the prevalence of smoking
Figure 6: Prevalence of cigarette smoking among adults in England, by age and gender, 1998-2010
Deaths related to smoking
Figure 7: Estimated percentage of deaths attributable to smoking in England, by cause among adults aged 35 and over, by gender, 2011
Figure 8: Lung cancer incidence and mortality rates, England, by gender, 1971-2011
Success of NHS Stop Smoking services
Figure 9: Success of NHS Stop Smoking services, England, 2002/03 and 2012/13
Divided opinions on E-cigarettes
Rise in youngest demographics could encourage people to kick the habit
Figure 10: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, by gender, 2008-18
Opportunities in less affluent socio-economic groups
Figure 11: Forecast adult population trends, by socio-economic group, 2008-18

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Who’s Innovating?
Key points
Brands consolidate product ranges
Figure 12: Examples of NRT launches in 2013
Own-label NRT products
Figure 13: Own-label NRT products, 2012
Tobacco manufacturers launching E-cigarettes


Market Size and Forecast
Key points
Growth of E-cigarettes hinders smoking cessation market in 2013
Figure 14: UK retail value sales of smoking cessation products, 2008-18
Small growth predicted for smoking cessation market
Figure 15: Best- and worst-case forecast of UK retail value sales of smoking cessation products, 2008-18
Forecast methodology

Market Share
Key points
Own-label rises in popularity
Figure 16: Brand shares in UK value sales of smoking cessation methods, year to November 2013
Products which require activity show greatest market share
Figure 17: Brand shares in UK value sales of smoking cessation methods, years to November 2012 and November 2013

Companies and Products
Johnson & Johnson
GlaxoSmithKline
Novartis
Gamucci

Brand Communication and Promotion
Key points
Rise in advertising spend in the category
Figure 18: Main media advertising expenditure on smoking cessation and E-cigarettes, by media type (excluding advertising for NHS Stop Smoking services), 2009-13
E-cigarettes are fuelling advertising spend

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